Surprise Surprise…
The Pew Research Center just conducted a study on the Obama VS Romney arena (PDF file found here). It’s contents were a bit of a surprise to me. Here are the numbers we’re working with:
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted September 12-16, 2012 among 3,019 adults including 2,424 registered voters, finds that Obama continues to be the more likable candidate by a substantial margin; his favorability rating has risen to 55% from 50% in late July, with 42% now expressing an unfavorable view of him. Romney’s favorability also has risen, from 37% in July to 45% currently. But more (50%) continue to view Romney unfavorably. No previous presidential candidate has been viewed more unfavorably than favorably at this point in a presidential campaign in Pew Research or Gallup September surveys going back to 1988.
It’s hard to find an issue where Romney even gets within ten points of Obama’s lead on any question until dealing with taxes or improving the job situation, where it’s fairly equal. Only when the federal budget deficit comes up, does Romney have a 3-point advantage. The Republicans talk smack about Obama on foreign policy – well they talk smack about him on everything. But this survey which ended shortly after the violence predicated by that stupid YouTube video shows people trust Obama’s foreign policy a lot.
The reason I found this PDF in the first place is because of an article CNN wrote about Obama leading Romney among Catholic voters by 54% to 39% which is amazing. Even with their bishops and their pope telling them things like abortion is evil and contraception is just as bad, the everyday Catholic is starting to show some independent thinking. Granted, a lot of the ground Obama gained is from hispanic and black Catholic voters, but every bit helps.
Being a government worker, I work in a very pro-military / pro-republican place. Only one of the guys I work with think Romney has a chance to win. Everyone else thinks it will be a close race, but most likely Mitt will lose. I’ll put a dollar on Obama to win the popular vote by 10%.
The writing is on the wall. I bet it’s going to be a very Democrat heavy few years. And, I’m ok with that.
~Wesley